Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.819299 3.007443 3.214998 3.463794 3.757974 4.100308 4.537811
2025-03-09 2.553511 2.798285 3.085646 3.457036 3.939844 4.572779 5.521907
2025-03-16 2.363868 2.630857 2.956040 3.396672 4.007552 4.883245 6.391428
2025-03-23 2.275020 2.567810 2.936791 3.460265 4.235842 5.465682 8.005957
2025-03-30 2.148281 2.442690 2.820509 3.370264 4.216721 5.646343 9.014537
2025-04-06 2.037985 2.329329 2.708070 3.269384 4.158895 5.737888 9.917959
2025-04-13 1.955442 2.246166 2.628860 3.206409 4.148766 5.912412 11.281102
2025-04-20 1.921147 2.223780 2.629970 3.260891 4.341036 6.559796 15.697582
2025-04-27 1.908789 2.229165 2.669064 3.376510 4.663852 7.677961 32.023058
2025-05-04 1.866067 2.190086 2.640738 3.380210 4.776489 8.345330 92.176574
2025-05-11 1.827260 2.154179 2.614221 3.383359 4.888168 9.103258 NaN
2025-05-18 1.769096 2.088534 2.539706 3.298514 4.800337 9.141667 NaN
2025-05-25 1.735834 2.058329 2.519152 3.309083 4.932680 10.172330 NaN
2025-06-01 1.700530 2.023781 2.490150 3.302472 5.027702 11.216257 NaN
2025-06-08 1.656725 1.975211 2.436924 3.247674 4.999048 11.664831 NaN
2025-06-15 1.641602 1.967140 2.445549 3.305366 5.258462 14.320230 NaN
2025-06-22 1.597175 1.914767 2.382065 3.223680 5.144352 14.239562 NaN
2025-06-29 1.552852 1.861366 2.315134 3.131841 4.992936 13.749083 NaN
2025-07-06 1.518141 1.821146 2.267727 3.074362 4.927125 13.958843 NaN
2025-07-13 1.508068 1.816645 2.276624 3.124096 5.160791 17.661698 NaN
2025-07-20 1.509291 1.828700 2.312442 3.229356 5.588647 29.365409 NaN
2025-07-27 1.490640 1.810383 2.297796 3.232718 5.711397 40.637595 NaN
2025-08-03 1.472834 1.792766 2.283496 3.235579 5.835375 67.154663 NaN